FBO Industry Forecast: Hazy, Overcast with Low Visibility

At the recent NBAA Schedulers and Dispatchers (S&D) Conference held in New Orleans March 25-27, FBO owners and operators we talked to left little to doubt that the near-term forecast for the industry is rather hazy (at best) with a looming tariff overcast that’s creating low visibility for what lies ahead.  

Many felt their FBOs are headed into unchartered territory as uncertainty looms about the effect that tariffs might have on the industry. 

FBO operators that are also in the aircraft maintenance business expressed concerns that any tariffs placed on imported parts for foreign manufactured airframes could lead to higher prices and delays in shipments. 

Then there are the flight departments, charter operators and fractional aircraft programs that potentially face higher acquisition costs for aircraft upgrades, fleet expansions or replacing aging airframes.  

What we learned is that every aspect of the general aviation industry could be affected by an indefinite period of fluctuating and/or prolonged tariffs. One conference attendee summed it up by saying that, “it’s hard to find the runway when you’re flying blind.”

In forecasting fuel sales for the remainder of 2025, we turn to the results of our Annual FBO Fuel Sales Survey which was completed just prior to the start of the tariffs. We asked owners and operators to forecast their fuel sales for 2025 based on their results in 2024 (see related chart above).  

The majority, 74 percent, predicted they would have the same fuel sales as last year or a modest increase of up to four percent, indicating a fairly flat market going forward. This forecast follows a year, 2024, in which reported fuel sales were mostly stagnant based on our survey.

Confidence in the Economy

In order to measure confidence in the economy, we asked our survey respondents to answer the question: Is the economy headed in the right direction?

Although there was a favorable uptick of 17 percent who indicated yes versus 2024 results, the majority, 43 percent, said they were undecided.

The following updated chart shows the results for this question since the inception of our survey in 2012. Although the forecast going forward is unclear because of current macroeconomic variables in play, the current indicated trajectories seem to be trending positively towards a better economy. 

Flat Business Aviation Flight Activity

The biggest impending question FBO owners and operators are asking is will they see more or less business aircraft on their ramps in 2025 than in 2024?

For insight in answering this question we turn to Argus International and its TRAQPak analysis which predicts a relatively flat year, compared to 2024, indicating a slight gain of 0.2%.

This forecast validates our discovery work through our Annual FBO Fuel Sales Survey and leads us to the conclusion that the rest of 2025 will be fairly pedestrian showing little, if any, real growth in FBO fuel sales.

  © 2025 ABSG/TJG

Please leave any comments you have about this blog post below. If you have any questions, please send us an email: John Enticknap, jenticknap@bellsouth.net,  Ron Jackson,  ronjacksongroup@gmail.com.

ABOUT THE BLOGGERS: John Enticknap is the founder of Aviation Business Strategies Group (ABSG). He has more than 35 years of aviation fueling and FBO services industry experience and is an IS-BAH Accredited auditor. Ron Jackson is co-founder of ABSG and president of The Jackson Group (TJG), a PR agency specializing in FBO marketing and customer service training. Visit the biography page or absggroup.com for more background.